Petroleum Decision and Risk Analysis
During this course, participants will learn multiple approaches to modeling decisions for oil and gas projects. This course will also highlight a proven process and technology for decision analysis, which is used by companies worldwide.
Participants will gain an overview of important concepts and examples of decision analysis. Uncertainties, risk, and the various ways to incorporate them in oil and gas project evaluations will be discussed throughout the course. A key concept that will be covered is the use of a proven decision analysis process, incorporating sensitivities, decision trees, and the value of information, in both deterministic and probabilistic approaches to evaluating oil and gas projects.
This course uses Excel, as well as the Merak software Peep and Decision Tool Kit.
Concepts of Decision and Risk Analysis
- Concepts of decision and risk analysis including decision criteria
- Decisions in the oil and gas industry
- Essentials of uncertainty, risk, probability and statistics
- A proven process for decision analysis
Participants will learn the concepts of decision and risk analysis and the important decision criteria. Decisions in the oil and gas industry will be discussed, specifically how to address them and more importantly how NOT to address them. Participants will also examine the essentials of uncertainty, risk, probability, and statistics including problem framing and eliminating bias. A proven process for decision analysis will be highlighted as well.
Simple Decision Models
- Modeling upstream oil and gas decisions
- Identify and incorporate key uncertainties
- Simple decision models
Upstream oil and gas decisions, which incorporate key uncertainties, will be modeled. Participants will build simple decision models and decision analysis case studies will be reviewed. Participants will also analyze given problems and make recommendations.
Complex Decision Models
- Complex decision models with probabilistic analysis
- Case studies and practice problems
- Group problem challenge
Participants will prepare and evaluate more complex decision models, incorporating probabilistic analysis. Case studies will be presented and practice problems will be worked in order to reinforce the understanding of the concepts. The course will end with a challenge to be addressed by each group.
Geoscientists, Engineers, and commercial team members. Anyone who wants to understand and model oil and gas decisions incorporating uncertainty and risk.
Foundation level course in Petroleum Economics with some experience in project economics is preferable.