Course Description
This course is designed to impart fundamental risk/uncertainty-related concepts and techniques to individuals in nearly any area of the petroleum business with a special emphasis on exploration. Conveyed are basic risk-related terms and definisitions, the practical application of risk assessment and risk management, and how these processes can be utilized in your business. Among the presented practices and technologies are: representing and integrating uncertainty and chance of failure; stochastic processes such as Monte Carlo analysis; calculation of risk-weighted values; dependence; sensitivity analysis; and other related methodologies. The Prospect/Play Risk Evaluation System (PPRES), among other applications, is used to illustrate many of the fundamental precepts. This is an example-filled and practical-application course and no prowess in mathematics or statistics is required.
Audience
This course is intended for geoscientists or engineers seeking knowledge of the application of risk techniques in the petroleum business.
Course Schedule
| 1 |
- Just a few of the terms and definitions (Exercsie D1-1)
- What is the question (Exercise D1-2)
- How to express rick (Exercise D1-3)
- The meaning of mitigation
- Risk assessment and risk management
- How risk assessment can relate to your job (Exercise D1-4)
- How risk management can relate to your job (D1-5)
- What is uncertainty and why is it important to consider (Exercsie D1-6)
- What is chance of failure and why is it important to consider (Exercise D1-7)
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| 2 |
- Who are the players in a risk assessment (Exercise D2-1)
- Who are the players in a risk management effort (Exercise D2-2)
- How might each of theose players view risk (Exercise D2-3)
- How might each of those players express risk (Exercise D2-4)
- Why is risk integration important (Exercise D2-5)
- What are "soft" risks
- The many forms of uncertainty expression
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| 3 |
- What is a distribution
- How do we collect data for building a distribution (Exercise D3-1)
- What is Monte Carlo analysis
- What is a cumulative frequency plot
- Is there a certain type of distribution for a given situation (Exercise D3-2)
- What parameters do we consider in Schlumberger's Prospect/Play Risk Evaluation System (PPRES)
- How does Schlumberger's Prospect/Play Risk Evaluation System (PPRES) work
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| 4 |
- Review definitions of PPRES prospect-evaluation input variables
- Input data to PPRES
- Run PPRES analysis (Exercise D4-1)
- Evaluate primary PPRES output plots/KPIs (Exercise D4-2)
- Run multi-prospect model considering dependence
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| 5 |
- Introduce the concepts of the Expected Value for Success (EVS) and the Expected Value for the Portfolio (EVP) (Exercise D5-1)
- Discussion of volumes vs. value (Exercise D5-2)
- How can we get from volumes to value
- Are we done? What about those "soft" risks (Exercise D5-3)
- How to integrate soft risks to get the best estimate of perceived value
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Instructor
Dr. Glenn Koller
Instructors may vary based on location and schedule.
Classes
No classes are currently scheduled for this course.
Add yourself to the waiting list
We will schedule a class for this course, when there are enough participants on the waiting list.
Course Provider:
Schlumberger
