Economics of Unconventional Resources
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During this course, participants will learn about the types of unconventional resources and the similarities between tight gas, coalbed methane, and shale gas. The lifecycle and key parameters of unconventional plays will be discussed in order for participants to gain an understand of how to model the economic viability of a potential development. This modeling process will incorporate the benefits of the latest industry knowledge on unconventional resource development, such as sweet spot identification, well planning, drilling, and completions, and incorporation of risk and uncertainty, in order to analyze the potential for profitability.
The participants will gain an overview of worldwide unconventional activity, the ability to understand best practices for development, and the process for identifying key risks and uncertainties. In addition, a proven process for modeling the economics of unconventional resource development, including the use of dynamic decision trees, will be covered.
This course uses Excel, but primarily uses the Merak software Peep and Decision Tool Kit.
Understanding the Unconventional Reservoir
- Lifecycle of unconventional resources
- Overview of worldwide unconventional resources
- Case studies of North America development
Participants will learn the definition and importance of unconventional resources, as well as the history, types, and recent results of a significant study of worldwide unconventional potential. Case studies on North America development will be presented and their applicability to development models around the world are discussed. Unconventional activity in some key selected areas of the world will be investigated.
- Current practices in evaluation and development
- Key technical and business parameters
- Best practices for successful development
Current practices in the three key phases of exploration, evaluation or pilot, and development will be discussed, along with ways to reduce the subsurface risk of development of unconventionals. Participants will learn some of the key technical and business parameters of current developments, and how to identify those in future unconventional plays. Best practices for successful development will be highlighted.
Project Cash Flow Modeling
- Understand breakeven price, hurdle rate and other metrics
- Consider options for project modeling
- Project schedules and other parameters
A cash flow analysis for the type well and the project pilot and development phases will be created by the participants using the latest industry tools and techniques for unconventional projects. The importance of the type well and using best practices to select appropriate ranges for potential outcomes will be emphasized. Creating schedules for pilot and development programs using the type well concept will be practiced so that the importance of this process and its analysis of a range of outcomes is understood.
Decision Modeling and Analysis
- Approaches to decision making
- Use and construction of decision models
- Analysis and interpretation of model outcomes
Course participants will learn about different approaches to decision making, including building decision maps and the appropriate use of decision models in unconventional projects. The importance of consistent decision modeling, as well as the use and construction of decision models will be practiced. A final project will allow the participants to utilize their learning in order to make recommendations for unconventional projects around the world.
Geoscientists, Engineers, Commercial team members, or Managers who need to model and analyze the business impact of unconventional resources.
A working knowledge of project economics or a foundation level course in Petroleum Economics.