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This Course seeks to provide a practical guide to many of the classical and modern statistical techniques that have become, or are becoming, mainstream for oil and gas professionals. It is intended to serve as a “how to” guide for the practicing petroleum engineer or geoscientist interested in applying statistical modeling and data analytics techniques in reservoir characterization, reservoir modeling/diagnostics and performance predictions. Examples related to both conventional and unconventional reservoirs will be presented and the participants will analyze data using public domain software.
There is a growing trend towards the use of statistical modeling and data analytics for analyzing the performance petroleum reservoirs, particularly unconventional reservoirs. The goal is to “mine the data” and develop data-driven insights to understand and optimize reservoir response. The process involves: (1) acquiring and managing data in large volumes, of different varieties, and at high velocities, and (2) using statistical techniques to discover hidden patterns of association and relationships in these large, complex, multivariate datasets. However, the subject remains a mystery to most petroleum engineers and geoscientists because of the statistics-heavy jargon and the use of complex algorithms. This course will provide an introduction to statistical modeling and data analytics for reservoir performance analysis by focusing on: (a) easy-to-understand descriptions of the commonly-used concepts and techniques, and (b) case studies demonstrating the value-added proposition for these methods.
This course is on the application of statistics and data analytics for practitioners. As such, it strikes a judicious balance between statistical rigor and formalism and practical considerations regarding the fundamentals and applicability of various relevant concepts. Beginning with a foundational discussion of exploratory data analysis, probability distributions and linear regression modeling, the course focuses on fundamentals and practical examples of such key topics as: Multivariate data reduction and clustering, Machine learning for regression and classification(for developing data-driven input-output models from production data as an alternative to physics-based models), Proxy construction using experimental design (for building fast statistical surrogate models of reservoir performance from simulator outputs for history matching and uncertainty analysis) and Uncertainty quantification for performance forecasting. Data sets from the petroleum geosciences are extensively used to demonstrate the applicability of these techniques.
Exploratory Data Analysis
Regression Modeling and Analysis
Multivariate Data Analysis
Experimental Design and Response Surface Analysis
Data-Driven Modeling and Performance Predictions
Discussion and Wrap-up
• Visualizing univariate, bivariate and multivariate data
• Fitting simple and multiple linear regression models to observed data
• Developing a non-parametric regression model from given data
• Reducing data dimensionality with Principal Component Analysis
• Grouping data with k-means and hierarchical clustering
• Identifying classification boundary between clusters using discriminant analysis
• Applying machine learning techniques (e.g., random forest, gradient boosting machine, support
vector regression, kriging model) for predictive modeling
• Generating decision rules with classification tree analysis
• Translating model input uncertainty into uncertainty in model predictions using Monte Carlo
simulation and analytical alternatives
• Analyzing input-output dependencies from Monte-Carlo simulation results
• Creating an experimental design and fitting a response surface to the results
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