• Class and Course

    Forecasting Production and Estimating Reserves in Unconventional Oil and Gas Reservoirs - Workshop

    This two-day course will provide a brief overview of systematic procedures for forecasting production and estimating reserves for individual wells in low-permeability oil and gas reservoirs, including shale plays. The workshop will provide background material leading to the understanding of forecasting methods.  It will also concentrate on traditional (Arps) decline models and the more recent models designed to provide more accurate forecasts during the long-duration transient periods (usually linear flow) associated with low-permeability, hydraulically fractured wells.  Applications of theory will be illustrated with in-class exercises.

    Day 1

    Fundamentals of Decline Models

    • Overview of reserves reporting requirements
    • Fluid flow fundamentals
    • Type curves and flow regime identification

    This day will focus on understanding basic reserves reporting requirements and on fluid flow fundamentals that are explicitly or implicitly used in production decline models. Participants will be able to distinguish between transient and boundary-dominated flow, choose appropriate variable rate analysis techniques, and calculate time required to reach fracture interference and well interference by the end of this day. In addition, participants will learn how to identify flow regimes occurring during production history and will be provided a basis for selecting appropriate models for each different flow regime.  Participants will also learn the importance of correcting rate data for changes in bottom-hole pressure when needed. 

    Day 2

    Production Decline Analysis

    • Arps decline model
    • Fetkovich type curve
    • Alternative decline models
    • Workflow for production decline analysis

    In this session the focus will be on proper application of Arps (including modification with minimum terminal decline rate), Fetkovich type curves, and useful alternative decline models, including Stretched Exponential, Power Law, Extended Duration Linear Flow, and Duong. These applications will include participants learning how to select data for appropriate models, when and how to switch models, and how to ensure that forecasts are compliant with reserves reporting regulations.

    Petroleum engineers, geologists, reserves analysts, and others whose job responsibilities or professional interests include reserves estimation.

    A knowledge of engineering and science principles, as well as a basic understanding of geology and reservoir engineering.

    Currently there are no scheduled classes for this course.

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