• Class and Course

    Major Investment Decisions under Uncertainty in the Energy Sector

    The purpose of this interactive workshop based class is to provide an holistic perspective for investment decisions in energy. It combines the broad contextual thinking by scenario planning with quantitative analysis methods.  It considers many dimensions and techniques so that participants go away with the ability to:

    • Understand how decision science techniques can facilitate an orderly and structured decision-making process.
    • Assess a cash flow analysis and understand decision metrics
    • Deal with uncertainties and understand their implications for investment decisions.
    • Use scenario planning to strategize and position investment opportunities in the broader macroeconomic and geopolitical environment.

    • Scene setting
    • Corporate strategy, the use of scenario planning
    • Types of decisions
    • Portfolio analysis and project ranking
    • Decision metrics
    • Decision science
    • Framing a decision

    • Decision model, concepts for structured decision making, decision quality
    • Mitigating human biases
    • Economics
    • Economic analysis, cash flows, decision 
    • metrics, sensitivities
    • Price assumptions
    • Uncertainty analysis
    • Tornados, decision trees, Monte Carlo simulation
    • Risk management, risk quantification

    • Scenario planning
    • Development of scenarios
    • Geopolitical and macroeconomic context
    • Scenarios for energy
    • Integration
    • Decision governance
    • Stage gate process
    • Value assurance

    • Business leaders
    • Decision analysts 
    • Project managers
    • Senior project staff 
    • Business developers 
    • Economists
    • Financial analysts 
    • Risk managers 
    • Strategy staff
    • M&A staff
    • New venture staff

    • What is a good investment decision?
    • What are ways to work around human bias?
    • Why is the discount rate not a good measure of risk?
    • How does risk management relate to decision making?
    • What are issues with the internal rate of return as a decision metric?
    • How do we develop meaningful price scenarios?
    • How do we structure an effective decision process?
    • How do we get to grips with geopolitical uncertainties?
    • When is Monte Carlo simulation a good idea?
    • How do we factor in climate change?
    • and many other..


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