• Class and Course

    Practical Probabilistic Volumetrics and Risking from Lead to Prospect to Post-Discovery

    This training is a unique opportunity tailored to give a geoscientist a good, quick start in lead, prospect, and post-discovery volumetrics and risking (estimating Chance of Success). 

    The course differs from other “volumetrics” courses because it focuses only on what the average geoscientist needs to know to run normal volumetrics. It follows a single opportunity from the lead to the prospect to post-discovery and demonstrates on how techniques change from one stage to the next. It focuses on how to get geologically based inputs into the calculation. 

    The course is “practical” because it teaches the only basic process that a geoscientist needs to know to assess an Exploration opportunity at any stage of its life from lead to post-discovery. At the end of the two days, the participants will be able to run everything the normal geoscientists should be able to run to evaluate an opportunity. It does not teach the advanced techniques that an expert assessor might use in more complicated assessments. 

    Another key focus of the course is learning how to get geologically based, sensible input ranges for the probabilistic volumetrics from the available date at various stages in the opportunity’s life. It focuses on how to geologically change the risk on the opportunity as more data becomes available. 

    The course is hands-on with many exercises. Although using the SLB tools, the course focuses on the principles, techniques, and “the tricks” that a geoscientist needs to do assessment. The participant should be able to do an assessment in any volumetric tool after this course. It is being offered as a 2-days workshop. 


    Day 1:


    ·         Basic Definitions and Concepts

    ·         Quick Introduction to Probabilistic Volumetrics

    Probabilistic Volumetrics Exercises

    ·         Crab and Sponge Lead assessment and Chance of Success Exercise (pre-3D)


    Day 2 :

    Probabilistic Volumetric Exercises (continued)

    ·         Crab and Sponge Lead assessment and Chance of Success Exercise (pre-3D) (continued)

    ·         Crab and Sponge Prospect re-assessment and Chance of Success revision Exercise (Post-3D. Pre-drill)

    ·         Crab Post-discovery and Sponge Prospect re-assessment and Chance of Success revision Exercise (Post-Crab-1 discovery.)

    Exploration geoscientists, team leads, and managers. Very valuable if attended as a team.

    Basic Definitions and Concepts

    ·         Probabilistic Volumetrics vs. Deterministic volumetrics

    ·         The Volumetric “Formula”

    ·         What is Monte Carlo Simulation?

    ·         Input distributions made easy

    ·         What do all the “P’s” mean? P10, P50, P90, 1P, 2P, 3P, proven, probable, possible…

    ·         What is “the answer” to the probabilistic volumetrics

    ·         What is a lead, prospect, exploration well, appraisal well and production well

    ·         Risk vs. Chance of Success (COS) vs. Uncertainty


    Quick Introduction to Probabilistic Volumetrics

    ·         Setting up a Chance of Success matrix (risk model): risk models & setting up prospect assessments

    ·         Extracting map-derived input values for volumetric and risk input values from Petrel


    Lead Volumetrics and Chance of Success

    ·         Gross Rock Volume: Area, Thickness, Trap Geometry Factor

    ·         Areal Percent Reservoir

    ·         Net-to-Gross, Porosity

    ·         % Trap Fill – Using simple petroleum system methods for seal capacity and, therefore, Trap Fill

    ·         Formation Volume Factors: Oil Shrinkage and Gas Expansion

    ·         Gas/Oil and Condensate/Gas factors

    ·         Recovery factors

    ·         Correlations

    ·         Risk Dependencies


    Prospect Volumetrics and Chance of Success (Revising lead-level volumetrics for new information)

    ·         Gross Rock Volume: Direct input of Gross Rock Volume from maps

    ·         Choosing a wildcat location


    Post-discovery Volumetrics and Chance of Success

    ·         Using Depth-Area pairs to characterize uncertainty in Oil/Water contacts

    ·         Developing an appraisal plan

    Basic Petrel skills are useful, but not required. No prior knowledge of volumetrics or Chance of Success Estimation are required. Required software skills will be taught as part of the course, so no software prerequisites.

    Currently there are no scheduled classes for this course.

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