• Class and Course

    Probabilistic Resources Evaluation

    During this course, the main focus will be to teach the participants about probabilistic reserve estimation methods, along with risk and uncertainty in evaluation economics.  The course will also review reserve and resource definitions and classifications, emphasizing deterministic and probabilistic definitions.  Important background material from statistics and probability will be covered, with applications to expected value, probability trees, and simulation.

    Participants can expect to learn about the economic evaluation of reservoirs and the methods of dealing with risk and uncertainty.  A key concept that will be covered is probabilistic estimation procedures in different countries.  Participants will be introduced to the Monte Carlo simulation of reserves along with the value of reserves.  Throughout the course, spreadsheets will be used to demonstrate important concept and how to handle complex scenarios.

    Day 1

    Reserves and Resources

    • Reserves and resources classifications and definitions
    • Probabilistic reserves techniques
    • Class exercises

    On the first day of the course, participants will learn reserves and resources classifications and definitions.  The course will also cover the probabilistic reserve techniques.  To ensure maximum retention of the information students will participate in several class exercises

    Day 2

    Statistics and Probability 

    • Statistics and probability
    • Class exercises

    The main focus of day two is the understanding of statistics and probability.  This day will also include class exercises to ensure that students gain the proper understanding of the material covered on this day.


    Day 3

    Value and Probability Trees 

    • Expected value and probability trees
    • Class exercises

    This day will focus on the expected value of a reservoir.  Participants will learn about probability trees on this day as well.  To ensure maximum retention of the information students will participate in several class exercises.

    Day 4

    Monte Carlo Simulation 

    • Monte Carlo simulation
    • Application of Monte Carlo simulation to reserve estimation
    • Class exercises

    Day four of this course will focus on teaching students about the Monte Carlo simulation.  Each participant will learn how to apply the Monte Carlo simulation to reserve estimations.  During this day, class exercises will be used so that participants can see the function of the simulation.

    Day 5

    Monte Carlo Simulation and Probabilistic Reserves in Other Countries

    • Application of Monte Carlo simulation to reserves evaluation
    • Probabilistic reserves in various countries
    • Class exercises
    • Final Exam

    On the final day of the course, participants will finish the discussion of the Monte Carlo simulation and will move into the probabilistic reserves in various countries.  At the end of the day there will be a final exam to determine how much information each student has retained.

    Petroleum engineers, geologists, reserves analysts and anyone whose job responsibilities include the estimation of reserves.

    Basic understanding of geology and reservoir engineering along with an understanding of petroleum economics. The course Deterministic Resources Evaluation offerd by NExT is a pre-requisite for this course.

    Currently there are no scheduled classes for this course.

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