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A decision to drill an exploration well with the objective to find a new oil or gas field must be based on a sound assessment of the prospect's risks and of the volumes: what is the chance that a well will find hydrocarbons, and how much could it be? Risk and volume assessments form the basis for decisions to drill a well or not, and as such form the link between subsurface evaluation and the business aspects of the petroleum industry. This course explains how risks and volumes can be assessed in a realistic manner, based on a sound understanding of the geological details of the prospect as well as of its regional geological setting and current play understanding.
At the end of the course the participants will have a good understanding of the essentials for realistic risk and volume assessments of exploration prospects. The course should allow participants to produce well-considered and realistic assessments for prospects they may be working on, and to understand and constructively challenge risk and volume assessments of colleagues and/or partners/competitors (e.g. in a data room).
Welcome and Introduction
Traps and Reservoirs
Seals, Pressures and Charge
Risks and Volumes
Bringing it all Together
This course is designed in the first place for geoscientists working in exploration, for prospect portfolio analysts and for their direct supervisors. It is also a very instructive course for staff from disciplines working closely with exploration staff, such as reservoir engineers, petrophysicists and geophysicists
The course will demonstrate that realistic risk and volume assessment is not a "black box" operation, but needs geological understanding of the prospect, and the regional setting.
Specific topics that will be discussed include:
• The fundamentals of Risk and Volumes assessment; translating geological understanding into reasonable numbers and ranges.
• The difference between risk and uncertainty.
• Fundamentals of statistics; including explanation of distribution curves, understanding of expectation curves, do's and don'ts for adding risked volumes, and Bayes theorem.
• Uncertainty of trap, reservoir, seal and charge, illustrated by examples.
• Guidelines and exercises for estimating risks realistically and consistently.
• Calculating volume ranges for prospects and for portfolios of prospects; how to add prospect volumes for a correct representation of prospect portfolios.
• Incorporation of geophysical evidence (DHIs) in a realistic risk assessment.
Knowledge of Basic Petroleum Geology as related to Exploration. Knowledge of Basic Petroleum Economics is helpful but not required
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