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Develop measurable skills and capabilities
Risks and uncertainties are everywhere in E&P projects. Theyimpact decision making by the projects chosen, how they aredeveloped, and their economic performance. Improving the quality of decisionsis the main goal, not just understanding risk and uncertainty for their ownsake.
Although probabilistic concepts and tools arecommonly used to describe projects under risk and uncertainty, theprinciples underlying these concepts and tools are not always wellunderstood. Upon completion of thiscourse, participants will become more comfortable with probabilistic thinkingand how it can be used to improve decision making.
• Basic probability refresher
• Probability calculation rules
• Expected value, risk dependence
• Simple exploration economics exercise
Day 2 - Decision Analysis
• Decision trees
• Influence diagrams, SWOT analysis
• Bayes formula
• Value of Information and case study
The case study will illustrate the concept of value of information by combining decision trees and Bayesian inversion to show how the probability of geologic success should be revised to incorporate new seismic information and how the quality of this information impacts its value.
Day 3 - Psychological Aspects of Decision Making
• Utility curves and risk attitudes
• Behavioral economics
• How good are we at estimating?
• Cognitive biases
Day 4 - Uncertainty
• Deterministic versus probabilistic: what is the difference?
• Histogram, pdf, cdf, percentiles, mean, mode, median, variance, standard deviation
• Risked mean
• Standard error of the mean, confidence intervals
• Random errors and bias
• Correlation and its interpretation
• The flaw of averages, the winner’s curse
Day 5 - Monte Carlo Simulation and case studies
• A review of the most common distributions used in geosciences
• The Monte Carlo approach
• Presentation of @RISK™, a Monte Carlo add-in for Excel™
• Computing uncertainty on STOIIP
• What to expect from a workover program?
Estimation of the production increase expected from a workover program will demonstrate the importance of scale in assessing uncertainty.
Anyone interested in learning more about the approach and techniques of risk, uncertainty and decisions in E&P projects.
Some basic statistics knowledge would be useful but not mandatory.
Customize your own learning journey and track your progress when you start using a defined learning path.